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By Joel Rose 20 hours ago

A week ago, Yeni Gonzalez was in an immigration detention center in Arizona more than 2,000 miles from her children.

On Tuesday, the 29-year-old stood outside the social services agency in New York City where she had just seen her kids for the first time in 45 days, clutching a blue and white lollipop in her hand.

"I feel very happy because I just saw my children, and my daughter gave me that lollipop," Gonzalez said in Spanish.

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The laws of planetary motion were first described by a 17th-century German scientist, Johannes Kepler.


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Let's go now to northern Thailand. Reporter Michael Sullivan is in Chiang Rai, and he's joining us now via Skype. Hey there.


By Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson Jul 2, 2018

Under the deal, migrants registered in other European Union countries will be held in transit centers as Germany negotiates their return. The country's rebellious interior minister had threatened to quit and pull his party from Angela Merkel's coalition government if the German chancellor did not take a harder line on asylum seekers.

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Biological organisms have not responded to this unpredictability by wasting resources attempting to make predictions. Indeed, adaptable systems in nature haven’t proven their record of success by demonstrating a high percentage of predictions that turned out to be correct, but rather by surviving and reproducing for 3.5 billion years and by diversifying into tens of millions of extant species living in the coldest, hottest, deepest, highest and most unpredictable niches on Earth. They have all done this by mastering the craft of adaptability. Natural adaptability is fundamentally different from merely reacting to a crisis (which is too late) or attempting to predict the next crisis (which is almost certain to fail, especially in species like humans when complex behaviors are involved). Adaptability controls the space between reaction and prediction, providing an inherent ability to respond efficiently to a wide range of potential challenges-not just those that are known or anticipated-as they arise in their environment.

Although, “adaptability” is now being thrown around as a popular buzzword among various security agencies and analysts, this potentially powerful concept is treated rather carelessly. Guidance on exactly what adaptability is and how it can be adopted in practice has been lacking. It is often presented as an ultimate, but ill-defined goal to attain. For example, after a perceived failure in security operations, it is argued that the agency in charge “needs to become more adaptable” with little guidance as to what more adaptable would look like. Likewise, dimensionless claims about adaptability, such as, “insurgents are more adaptable than us” are made without clear guidelines of how to measure adaptability.

Here we present a framework called “Natural Security”, that places adaptability at the heart of understanding, and mounting effective responses to security threats, whatever form they take [ 1 , Statement Clutch Imagination by VIDA VIDA 74qBEn99W5
, 3 ]. Natural Security can be viewed as a set of analytical and prescriptive tools that are based in the recognition that the function of adaptability has fundamental roots that go back as far in Earth's history as life itself. By deeply examining life history, including human evolution, we can discover proven solutions to surviving in a hostile and unpredictable world. These solutions have already been developed over 3.5 billion years of life history, but have largely gone unexamined in the analysis, planning and practice of security in modern human society. Insights from natural adaptive systems give us both clarity on our past survival as a species and guidance for dealing with unpredictable threats in the future. The concept of adaptability encompasses a broad diversity of security solutions in nature and accordingly provides a single unified framework for analyzing and guiding responses to the unpredictable threats. The Natural Security framework can be used regardless of the approach to security, but it will be particularly useful in an informatics context because—like the natural systems it was distilled from—it can improve its performance through a recursive process of transforming multitudes of observational data into ever more sharply defined responses to environmental change.

The researchers developed 4 different basic scenarios and a larger number of combinations based on these scenarios:

Constant Enrollment Numbers (CEN): This is the researcher's most pessimistic scenario. Here it is assumed that no more schools are being opened in any place in the world so that the absolute number of people reaching a particular educational level is frozen at the current number. This means that enrollment rates are declining when the population size increases.

Constant Enrollment Numbers (CEN):

In practice the WC-IIASA researchers almost always consider CER as the most pessimistic scenario and only rarely discuss CEN.

Constant Enrollment Rates (CER) : This is another pessimistic scenario. While in the CEN scenario the absolute of enrolled students stagnates, the assumption in the CER scenario is that the of enrollment stagnates. In this scenario the most recently observed rates of educational enrollment are frozen at their current rate and no further improvement in enrollment is assumed.

Constant Enrollment Rates (CER)

This will still result in further improvements of adult education because in many countries the younger cohorts are better educated than the older ones. But in the longer run this scenario also implies stagnation.

Fast Track (FT): This scenario is the most optimistic one and here it is assumed that countries follow the most rapid education expansion achieved in recent history which is that of South Korea.

Fast Track (FT):

Global Education Trend (GET): This is the middle scenario and here the researchers assume that countries will follow the average path of educational expansion that other countries already further advanced in this process have experienced.In this scenario the researchers project the medium future trajectory based on the experience of all countries over the past 40 years

Global Education Trend (GET):

The researchers write:“The GET scenario is moderately optimistic, and can be considered as the most likely.”

In a 2001 paper, Nico Keilman assessed the projections of the global demographic changes that the UN published between 1951 and 1998. The next graph shows the increase of the world population (solid black line) along with the UN projections published between 1950 and 1980. With the exception of the projection "1950 I", which relied on poor data – especially for China – the forecasts are remarkably accurate. Even the 1950 III forecast that was made with better information on China after the 1953 Census is not far off for the population size half a century later.

Nevertheless it is interesting to see that over the first decades the UN underestimated the population growth and for the last period they overestimated the world population. Why this happened becomes clearer if we look at the projections for the world fertility rate and global life expectancy.

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Failure is a familiar trauma in life, but its effects on people differ widely. Some reel, recover, and move on with their lives; others get bogged down by anxiety, depression, and fear of the future. Seligman, who is known as the father of positive psychology, has spent three decades researching failure, helplessness, and optimism. He created a program at the University of Pennsylvania to help young adults and children overcome anxiety and depression, and has worked with colleagues from around the world to develop a program for teaching resilience. That program is being tested by the U.S. Army, an organization of 1.1 million people where trauma is more common and more severe than in any corporate setting. Nevertheless, businesspeople can draw lessons from resilience training, particularly in times of failure and stagnation.

The program is called Comprehensive Soldier Fitness, and it has three components: the Global Assessment Tool, a test for psychological fitness (administered to more than 900,000 soldiers to date); self-improvement courses following the test; and “master resilience training” (MRT) for drill sergeants. MRT focuses on enhancing mental toughness, highlighting and honing strengths, and fostering strong relationships—core competencies for any successful manager.

Listen to an interview with Martin Seligman.
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Douglas and Walter, two University of Pennsylvania MBA graduates, were laid off by their Wall Street companies 18 months ago. Both went into a tailspin: They were sad, listless, indecisive, and anxious about the future. For Douglas, the mood was transient. After two weeks he told himself, “It’s not you; it’s the economy going through a bad patch. I’m good at what I do, and there will be a market for my skills.” He updated his résumé and sent it to a dozen New York firms, all of which rejected him. He then tried six companies in his Ohio hometown and eventually landed a position. Walter, by contrast, spiraled into hopelessness: “I got fired because I can’t perform under pressure,” he thought. “I’m not cut out for finance. The economy will take years to recover.” Even as the market improved, he didn’t look for another job; he ended up moving back in with his parents.

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